McCain's Box

OK, I'm getting back on the blogging train, and this time I am making a commitment to regular posting and to connecting with other bloggers.

I call this post 'McCain's Box' because I think McCain is in a box as far as his campaign strategy goes. McCain's greatest strength is his ability to appeal to swing voters, to those moderate unaffiliated or conservative Democratic voters. But every time he repositions himself as "not a scary conservative guy" he risks alienating the GOP base: the social conservatives whose participation elected GWB in 2000 and even moreso in 2004. Yet every time he throws red meat to the faithful, he shows himself as the kind of scary conservative that swing voters don't want in this election cycle. This paradox hasn't become so apparent thus far because we are still in the "silly season" when most people aren't really paying attention to the campaigns. Come September McCain is going to feel the pressure of walking this razor's edge. For example, many voters don't understand that he is a lifelong opponent of abortion rights. When he is forced to pledge allegiance to the pro-life position this fall (it will happen), moderates will notice. When he states his reasonable position on immigration reform, the hard-liners in his party will voice their disgust. While he might be successful in triangulating these issues by running a nasty negative campaign combined with populist economics, the most likely result is that he depresses turnout among core GOP true-believers (even a few percent in Va. or Fla. would be a disaster for him) AND fails to attract enough swing voters.

Agree? Disagree? Discuss amongst yourselves :-)